October 12, 2024

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BIG FOUR AGENDA HEADED FOR FAILURE UNLESS…

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President Uhuru Kenyatta’s vision of creating millions of well-paying jobs through rapid industrialization will not be actualized unless his government goes back to the drawing board and crafts a new development model. This proposition is borne out not only by the paltry amount of money allocated to the sector in the 2020/2021 budget but also by the way these funds will be used. This attainment of the Big Four Agendawill prove a bridge too far despite Finance Cabinet Secretary Ukur Yatani’s maiden budget theme of “Stimulating the economy to safeguard livelihoods, jobs, businesses and industrial recovery.”
The lofty theme, and the measly amounts of money allocated to industrialization, one of the key pillars of the Big Four Agenda is disturbing. To be fair to Yatani, like his predecessor Henry Rotich, recognized manufacturing as a major pillar and said the “government intends to increase the contribution of the sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) from about eight to 15 per cent by 2022.”
Analysts say that the recognition of just how important the sector is to the entire economy is not enough. After all, all earlier ministers of finance did the same and routinely paid lip-service to it and made grandiose promises of what will be achieved during the particular budget cycle.
In reality on the ground, however, was that the finance ministers and, by extension, the government gave the sector only band-aid instead of the radical surgery it required.
For example, Henry Rotich—his immediate predecessor—during whose tenure the Jubilee Government promised to grow the economy in double digits and manufacturing to 15 per cent only succeeded in implementing policies that saw the sector’s share of GDP drop from 10.7 per cent in 2013, 10.0 per cent in 2014, 9.4 per cent in 2015, 9.3 in 2016, 8.0 per cent in 2017 and 7.7 per cent in 2018 according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey published last year.
Striking Insights
Interesting insights are drawn from the data loadings. Yet, an assumption is made that the data as obtained from the source is complete and accurate.
1. Payroll
Standing like a loner outliner among the five economic factors, payroll is highly marginalised. Workers compensation is unfelt across all sectors. This could be because of any of the following three reasons,
(i) Low worker productivity.
Remuneration is greatly pegged on productivity. There may exist a reality that Kenyan workers are not very productive. They are not creating sufficient wealth as to justify noteworthy recompense. Nevertheless, workers’ productivity also relies on tools of work. If they are inefficiently resourced, their output -regardless of high training- will be compromised.
(ii) Exploitation by employers
Workers are productive but are being unfairly ill-used by employers due to the high unemployment levels. It may be too easy to replace an employee seeking higher pay with one desperate to work for less.
(iii) Non documentation of the pay.
This means that they are well paid but ‘under the table’ or in informal ways that the records fail to capture them. An example would be paying in kind through offering housing and other non-monetary benefits.
Of course, to unearth the actual position, specific studies will be required. These can be com- missioned by
Fed- eration of
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